3 OCTOBER 2000
MUNICH, GERMANY
China in the New Millennium
What is China's proper place in international politics? What role does China want to play in the world and how do its power aspirations translate into actual policies? Which factors shape China's policies regarding Taiwan, non-proliferation and international trade? These questions constituted the core of a roundtable workshop which took place in Munich, Germany on 13 October 2000.
* By ANJA JETSCHKE
That the workshop brought together German specialists on China from academia, government, business, and the media ensured that the assessments of China's actual policies and future policy options were quite diverse, thus stimulating lively debates.
The presentations in the first panel tried to explain China's foreign policy in the realm of security. Karl-Gottfried Kindermann of the Ludwigs-Maximilans University in Munich chose a historical approach to account for the Chinese leadership's greater assertiveness in foreign policy. China's historical experience with Western powers had taught the Chinese leadership that it needed to maintain its autonomy and sovereignty. Playing a greater international role was a key instrument in realizing this goal. Coupled with a perception that China's current political weight in international politics does not equal its cultural significance, the leadership has exhibited a propensity for realpolitik and actively tried to change the global balance of power in its favour. While agreeing that China aspires to greater political influence in the region and wants to become a regional power, Eberhard Sandschneider of the Centre for China and East Asian Studies of the Free University of Berlin argued that international institutions might assuage the threats perceived by other international actors. Therefore, whether China's policies with regard to the Spratly Islands issue, military armament, or Taiwan challenge the regional power balance ultimately depends on whether or not proper institutional mechanisms, such as confidence and security-building measures, which provide a framework for co-operation, can be created.
This assessment was countered by the subsequent presentation by Frank Umbach of the German Society for Foreign Policy. For Umbach, the extent of military influence in the decision-making process explains the pattern of non-co-operation in China's foreign policy. The Chinese leadership's armament and nuclear policies especially have to be seen as a result of this influence. He consequently regards prospects for China's compliance with international security regimes, such as the Non-Proliferation Treaty to be rather bleak. For Kay Möller of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik in Berlin, the key variable accounting for the Chinese leadership's difficulties in contributing to a solution of long-standing conflicts (especially with Taiwan) is political legitimacy. The Chinese government's political legitimacy is deeply challenged by the democratic Taiwanese political regime. As such, any integration of China and Taiwan - albeit in a loose political framework - ultimately poses serious challenges to political governance in China. As China's immediate neighbours and Western actors (the US and the EU), because of their varying perceptions of threat, do not agree on a collective approach towards China and Taiwan either and cannot play a meditating role, a solution to the conflict is unlikely in the near future.
During the discussion, a consensus emerged among the participants that an important function of China's membership to and integration with international and regional institutions such as the Asian Regional Forum and the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) might create the necessary domestic political space to pursue badly needed domestic reforms and constrain the political role of the military.
This assessment in the security realm was complemented by an evaluation of China's power resources in the economic area. Rolf J. Langhammer of the Institute for World Economy at the Christian-Albrechts University in Kiel and Markus Taube of the Gerhard-Mercator University in Duisburg discussed the consequences of China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the domestic factors shaping China's economic development. Langhammer argued that China's accession to the WTO would ultimately strengthen its role as an economic power in East Asia, as it would increase China's exports, expand direct foreign investments, and raise productivity. He predicted a shift in economic growth from Southeast Asia to Northeast Asia. Whether China ultimately complies with WTO procedures depends on the monitoring and sanctioning powers of the WTO. This perspective was complemented by the assessment of Marcus Taube, who asked why the Asian financial crisis has not affected the Chinese economy in a similar way it did those of other Asian countries. For Taube, currency convertibility was the key explanatory factor. Taube predicted that China's sensitivity concerning external shocks would rise in the wake of its WTO accession, while at the same time, the crisis has forged a remedy for 'weak points' enhancing the capacity of the Chinese economy to deal with external shocks in the future.
Despite the variety of issues discussed and individual differences in viewpoints, the participants overwhelmingly agreed that China has actively started to shape its international environment. The key variables, it seems, that will ultimately determine whether or not China will play a constructive and co-operative role in the future, appear to be the distribution of power among civilian and military policy-makers and integration into international regimes.
This workshop was jointly organized by the Herbert-Quandt-Foundation of the BMW AG of Munich and the Department of Political Science of the University of Freiburg. *
Dr Anja Jetschke is Assistant Professor for International Relations at the Department of Political Science, University of Freiburg.
E-mail: jetschke@uni-freiburg.de