2 * 4 JUNE 2000
OSLO, NORWAY
Human & Regional Security
around the South China Sea
Thirty-seven scholarly papers were presented at the workshop 'Human and Regional Security around the South China Sea' in Oslo from 2 to 4 June 2000. Thanks to generous funding from the Norwegian Research Council, the ESF Asia Committee, and the Statoil Company, it was possible to invite a substantial number of scholars from the countries around the South China Sea, and also leading experts from Australia, North America, and Europe.
* By STEIN TØNNESSON
Keynote speakers were Prof. Hasjim Djalal (Jakarta) and Dr Mark J. Valencia (Honolulu). Rector Kaare R. Norum of the University of Oslo opened the workshop, and Professor Jean-Luc Domenach (Paris) delivered a speech to the participants on behalf of the ESF Asia Committee. The workshop was organized into six panels: 1) The Environment, 2) History, 3) Security, 4) Economy, 5) Law, and 6) Confidence Building and Conflict Management.
As the workshop was organized under the Chatham House Rule, it is not possible to quote what was said. What follows are my personal impressions, which will not represent the views of all participants:
1. The environment in the South China Sea is under severe stress. Disputed coral reefs are rapidly being destroyed by the use of illegal fishing methods and by military activity. Some species of fish are rapidly being depleted. The environmental problems are recognized locally, and agreement has been reached about the undertaking of some joint research, but so far nothing effective has been done. Even in areas where national jurisdiction is undisputed, it is difficult to patrol fishing grounds and prevent the use of illegal fishing methods. In disputed waters this is virtually impossible.
While the situation gives grounds for pessimism, environmental concerns are also the most likely basis for regional co-operation and conflict management. One factor that may contribute to reduction in the intensity of the disputes is that the prospects of finding substantial quantities of oil and gas are less promising than they had once seemed.
2. Historically, the Paracel and Spratly Islands have been mainly a source of danger to shipping. When ancient documents described them, the intent was not to claim sovereignty on behalf of any particular state, but to help seafarers avoid danger. Even in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, the small islands and reefs in the Paracel and Spratly areas were of much less economic and strategic value than local interest groups would have the world believe.
3. The balance of naval forces in the South China Sea is now partly affected by the growing strength of the Chinese Navy, partly by US development of Theatre Missile Defence (TMD) technology, and also by the increasing sophistication of satellite-based monitoring systems. Taiwan-mainland relations are closely intertwined with the conflict in the South China Sea.
It seems possible that a local security regime could emerge, based on: a) a shared implicit realization in China, the USA, and Southeast Asia that a balance of force is necessary in order to guarantee the safety of shipping, and b) a general realization in the region that co-operation and conflict management must be undertaken in order to resolve critical environmental problems and facilitate international trade and investments.
4. Much of the trade of the countries around the South China Sea is with developed economies elsewhere. The local states compete in the same markets and try to attract the same kind of investments. Still there has also been a tendency towards regional economic integration, with Singapore and Taiwan as the main catalysts. A pattern of sustained economic development will depend on the continuation of this trend.
5. All the local states have signed the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS); most have also ratified it. The foreign ministries have increased their competence in the Law of the Sea, but politicians often lack the most basic understanding of its intricacies. The foreign ministries realize that any solution to disputes over maritime delimitation must be based on UNCLOS. This means that claims to sovereignty over so-called 'maritime territory' must be rephrased as claims to a twelve-nautical mile territorial sea, a further twelve-nautical mile contiguous zone, a 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone, and a 200-350-nautical mile continental shelf, all extended from properly drawn baselines along the coasts and around the islands of each state. A key step in paving the way for a solution to the South China Sea disputes is to decide if any of the small islets in the Spratly and Paracel areas fulfil the requirements for generating more than a twelve-nautical mile territorial sea and if the answer is positive, how many. The text of UNCLOS is unclear on this matter and legal scholars disagree on its interpretation.
The Philippines, China, and Taiwan might, if they want to, seek a resolution to their dispute over Scarborough Reef in a way that would set a precedent for resolving the larger disputes (notably the Spratlys).
6. The most promising recent events, in terms of preparing the ground for conflict management and regional co-operation, are:
a) China and Vietnam intend to reach an agreement on maritime delimitation in the Gulf of Tonkin before the end of 2000;
b) ASEAN and China are engaged in negotiations for a code of conduct;
c) the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has developed a comprehensive Strategic Action Plan for the South China Sea.
7. Despite these positive signs, the workshop was characterized by general pessimism. This reflected the precariousness of the environmental situation, and also security matters, although no one seemed to expect an outbreak of war. There does not seem to be much prospect of resolving the disputes over sovereignty and maritime delimitation in the Paracel and Spratly areas.
Publications
The papers will not be published in a joint volume. Instead the authors have been encouraged to submit their papers as drafts to renowned journals. Most have already done so. A majority of the papers will thus hopefully be published in Ocean Development and International Law, The Pacific Review, Survival and other periodicals. The intention is to register on the workshop web site all the publications that come out of the workshop.
Please visit: Http://www.sum.uio.no/ southchinasea
Professor Stein Tønnesson is professor of Human Development Studies at the Centre for Development and the Environment, University of Oslo, Norway.
E-mail: cklin@nccu.edu.tw