The objective of the research is to study the effects of the global geopolitics of energy security supply on the main energy consuming countries in East and South Asia, namely China, India, Japan, and South Korea and their national strategy of securing supply from the Persian Gulf and the Caspian region (comprising Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and Russia).
The Caspian region is selected for special attention for the following reasons. Firstly, the region is supplementary to the Middle East proper and therefore a region for diversification of supply. Secondly, China is one of the major players in the new Great Game underway for the control of the Caspian energy resources. Thirdly, the Caspian is not under the domination of a single major power.
Programme coordinator: Dr Mehdi Parvizi Amineh
The Energy Program Asia (EPA) provides cutting edge research and publications on the impact of East and Southeast Asian energy supply strategies for the Caspian region and Persian Gulf in the 21st century. The EPA was launched at the International Institute for Asian Studies, in cooperation with the Clingendael International Energy Program (CIEP), Waseda University, Tokyo, and the Beijing Normal University.
Objectives
The EPA focuses on the effects of global geopolitics of energy supply on the main energy consuming countries in East and Southeast Asia - primarily China, India, Japan, and South Korea. The research closely examines national strategies for securing supply from the Persian Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait) and the Caspian region (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Russia) covering the period from the end of Cold War until 2030.
EPA's research is of paramount importance, as many countries and regions (especially China, India and European Union) show strong increases in energy import growth rates while proven global energy resources already appear to be critical for the coming two decades. Research in this area will provide fresh insight into the urgency of developing new policies and strategies to promote international cooperation in energy issues and avoid conflict scenarios. Additionally, the Program's research strongly contributes to the ongoing debate regarding environmental sustainability.
Less optimistic outcomes of the previously mentioned issues will clearly call for intensified energy efficiency policies (in both consumer and producing countries) and reinforce incentives for investment in alternative energy resources.
The EPA aims to be at the forefront of research addressing these regions, in the Netherlands, in Europe, and internationally. An inter-disciplinary team of four leading experts and 19 additional sectoral experts will carry out the research in close collaboration with local and international researchers and others in the fields of energy security, geo-politics, political science and economics.
The EPA addresses the following issues:
a) What are the effects of geopolitical competition for secure supplies of fossil energy between the main global consumer countries and oil and gas companies?
b) What strategies have the countries under study adopted to secure supplies from the Persian Gulf and Caspian region?
c) What are the main strategic alternatives and scenarios under discussion in China, India, Japan and South Korea to secure projected energy supplies, and how do they relate to US and EU strategies?
d) How can producer-consumer dialogue and regional cooperation help mitigate internal security risks in producer countries?
e) What energy efficiency policies are in place in the four consuming countries under study and the European Union, as well as producing countries?
f) In addition to the ongoing debate about environmental sustainability, how urgent is the quest for alternative energy resources for global energy supply in the next two decades?
g) What are the worst and best-case scenarios (for both governmental and business interests), which can be derived from the above, mentioned research objectives?
A core team of experts will draft each section of the study. They will work closely with smaller teams, who will provide input from their fields of expertise, thus bringing together a broad base of knowledge while safeguarding the program's overall coherence (in terms of substance and style).
Project rationales
The global demand for oil and gas is predicted to increase significantly by the year 2030. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), world oil consumption will rise from 76.9 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2000 to 118.8 million bbl/d in 2025. While this is only an average annual increase of 1.8% per year, it amounts to a cumulative increase of 54%. Dependency on Persian Gulf oil, in particular, will grow substantially in all major consumer markets. In 2030 the import dependency of Europe, East and Southeast Asia will
be more than 70% of domestic consumption.
In the mid-term future, China, India, Japan and South Korea will become major competitors of the EU and the US for scarce energy resources. China, the most populous country in the world and the second largest oil consumer, is expected to have a 9.2% share of the world's total oil consumption by 2025, importing 70% of its total oil needs. Japan is the third largest oil consumer in the world behind the US and China, importing almost all of its energy supplies. India is one of the fastest growing economies in Asia, and will have a 4.6% share of the world's total oil consumption by 2025, importing about two-thirds of its crude oil requirements.
South Korea is the second largest importer of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) worldwide, importing all of its oil needs.
In addition, oil production in the major East and Southeast Asia countries - namely China and India - has peaked or is about to peak, leading to increased reliance on oil imports from a limited number of politically and economically fragile exporting countries and regions. At the same time, exporting regions suffer from increasing instability due to regional tensions and domestic problems.
These factors greatly concern consumer countries, which are increasingly mindful of the strategic importance of energy producing countries, now and in the future.
The traditional approach to energy security focuses on the ability to employ domestic energy assets, infrastructure, the investment climate and availability of foreign oil and gas supplies. However, future global energy consumption (particularly energy import dependency) will increasingly politicize and intensify competition and cooperation among primary consumers. This requires a shift in conventional thinking about energy policies, and a need to place foreign and security policies at the center of the debate. EPA's research aims to look at the
geopolitical setting in which these policies must perform, given the dynamic developments in current international political and economic relations.
EPA's research on the security of energy supply naturally contributes to the debates on energy efficiency and alternative energy resources. Subsequently, the research also aims to study the effects of national energy efficiency situations, in both producer and consumer countries. For example, Iran (as one of the main producer countries) is troubled with increasing inefficiency in its domestic energy use. If this continues, there is a fair chance Iran will export considerably less oil (rather than considerably more) in 2015 than it does today.
Another example is the response of China and India to international environmental claims (Kyoto). There are different strategies for these countries to optimize their energy efficiency. If they gradually turn from coal-driven to oil-driven economies, efficiency is increased but their already assertive oil and gas supply strategies will further intensify.
The energy efficiency topic in EPA's research is therefore reasonably significant. In addition to the geopolitical issues mentioned above, the research outcomes might effectively strengthen new energy efficiency policies and increase the inclination for investment in alternative energy resources.
Publications: Selected publications by Dr Mehdi Parvizi Amineh
