The Security of Energy Supply in China, Japan, India, South Korea, and the European Union: Possibilities and Impediments
Conference Report
On 20-21 May, 2005, The Energy Programme Asia (EPA)-International Institute for Asian Studies (IIAS) and the Clingendael International Energy Programme (CIEP) organized a conference entitled: "The Security of Energy Supply in China, India, Japan, South Korea, and the European Union: Possibilities and Impediments" at the Netherlands Institute for International Relations Clingendael, Clingendael 7, Den Haag and at the University of Leiden, Academy Building, University Council Room, Rapenburg 73, Leiden.
This conference was the third out of a number conferences held in Europe and Asia as part of the Energy Programme Asia, an IIAS research programme managed by Dr. Mehdi Parvizi Amineh. The Energy Programme Asia provides cutting edge research and publications on the impact of East and Southeast Asian (China, India, Japan, South Korea) energy supply strategies for the Caspian Region and the Persian Gulf in the 21st century. The EPA was initiated at the International Institute for Asian Studies in cooperation with the Clingendael International Energy Program (CIEP), Waseda University Tokyo, and the Beijing Normal University.
The conference brought together academics and diplomats to discuss possibilities for developing a shared perspective on geopolitical, economic and energy related (future) developments in East and Southeast Asia (China, India, Japan, South Korea), and identify main points of interest for future research. We also took up implications for the future direction of our research project. The main questions that were addressed at the conference were:
Will the rivalry between the main Asian energy consumer countries - China, Japan, India and South Korea - as well as the EU and US over Persian Gulf and Caspian energy production become an obstacle to the uninterrupted flow of oil and gas?
What are the main strategic scenarios in China, India, Japan, South Korea, US and EU to secure projected energy supplies?
How can producer-consumer dialogues and regional cooperation help reduce internal security risks in producer countries?
Economic growth in East and South East Asia has increased energy needs, as the regions' countries increasingly depend on hydrocarbon resources. The growing energy dependence of East and South East Asia is fuelling official concern over energy security. Oil production in the major East and South East Asian countries- China, and India has peaked or is about to peak. This will lead to increased reliance on imported oil and gas from a limited number of politically and economically unstable countries and regions- mainly the Persian Gulf and the Caspian region. The concentration of oil reserves in the Persian Gulf and the Caspian region, accompanied by growing demand, increases the dependency of large consuming countries such as the US, China, Japan, India and the EU member states on these two regions. A regional crisis in the Persian Gulf or Caspian region could easily create the type of supply shortage, which no swing-producers outside these regions could compensate for. In an environment of serious geopolitical competition for oil resources, the two unstable producer regions could easily become further destabilized, when external pressure to supply oil and gas cannot be combined with internal political and economic stability.
As global oil and gas consumption and imports rise, environmental conditions worsen, the availability of oil and gas decreases, and prices for these commodities rise, conflicts over the control of global oil and gas intensify.
Day 1 - Clingendael, the Hague
Day 2 - International Institute for Asian Studies, Leiden
DAY TWO - Saturday 21 May 2005 Leiden University, Leiden
Session 3: Northeast Asian Energy Supply Security and Geopolitics
Chair: Prof. Yu Shibutani, Director Energy Geopolitics, Ltd, Japan
